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CalPreps likes Hillmen in FVL preseason grid predictions

By: Mike Ray for the Auburn Journal
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Ned Freeman is living proof that sports and math do mix.

Years back, when Freeman parlayed his love of prep sports together with his drive for statistical analysis, the end result was a surprising storyline for the former Marin County standout basketball player.

Freeman, a 1987 graduate of Drake High School in San Anselmo, created CalPreps.com in 2002, which features the “Freeman Ratings” – that ranks high school teams using an intricate formula based on analysis of statistical data and strength of schedule.

What started years back as a way to keep track of Marin County Athletic League basketball stats has developed into a national source for ranking teams in basketball, football, baseball, volleyball and lacrosse.

In 2004, MaxPreps.com – the trusted national source for high school sports coverage – signed Freeman’s CalPreps.com to a contract to provide scores and schedules for every game. MaxPreps pays a price for his content but does not interfere with the statistical purity of his ratings on  CalPreps.

With that in mind, here are CalPreps’ preseason numbers on how some of the area’s prep football leagues should shape up this season.

According to the website:

*Placer, with 17 returning starters back, is predicted to win the Foothill Valley League with Lincoln and Rio Linda battling it out for second place.

*Lincoln, with preseason games against two Sierra Foothill League schools (Oak Ridge and Whitney) and another against Antelope, is playing the toughest FVL schedule.

*CalPreps has Center and Bear River (both 15.1) in a virtual dead heat for Pioneer Valley League honors with Colfax (13.5) nipping at the heels.  

*To almost no surprise, Folsom (86.3) is a heavy favorite to repeat in the SFL. Del Oro (51.6) and Oak Ridge (46.1) are ranked second and third, respectively. First year SFL member Whitney is predicted to finish in last place, but the Wildcats (48.1) are playing the toughest schedule of any team in the SFL.

 

Here are some preseason numbers for fans to chew on:

 

Foothill Valley League

Team       Rating    Schedule Strength

1. Placer       41.6         14.2

2. Lincoln  23.8         23.2

3. Rio Linda          19.7   8.2

4. Nevada Union   8.4       13.1

5. Ponderosa           4.0   15.1

6. Oakmont           -0.9 11.7

 

Pioneer Valley League

Team               Rating             Schedule Strength

  1. Center                15.1 -5.4

  2. Bear River         15.1               -11.6

  3. Colfax               13.5       -9.6

  4. Foothill            -10.2 -7.5

  5. Marysville       -27.3 -6.5

  6. Lindhurst        -33.3                -8.5

 

Sierra Foothill League

Team      Rating   Schedule Strength

  1. Folsom 86.3          46.7

  2. Del Oro 51.6           35.8

  3. Oak Ridge           46.1      39.2

  4. Granite Bay    44.5         44.5

  5. Rocklin 31.7                46.9

  6. Grant     23.3        41.5

  7. Whitney              18.5 48.1